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Thursday, 7th Feb 2013ForexHint
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Economical News | Technical Analysis | Wild Card | Market Trend | Indicators

Euro wordt bearish in afwachting van persconferentie ECB.

Zorgen, over wat de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) op de persconferentie van vandaag zou kunnen bespreken met betrekking tot het economisch herstel van de EU, zorgden ervoor dat de euro bearish werd tijdens het grootste deel van de handelssessie van gisteren. Bovendien boekten andere meer renderende activa's verliezen, zoals ruwe olie en de Australische dollar, terwijl beleggers hun fondsen verschoven naar safe-haven activa's. Vandaag kan er naast de persconferentie van de ECB, die op de planning staat voor 13:30 GMT, volatiliteit in de markt worden verwacht als gevolg van de publicatie van het wekelijkse Amerikaanse Unemployment Claims figure.

Economical News

USD

De US-dollar steeg ten opzichte van haar meer riskante valutarivalen, toen de zorgen over de uitkomst van de beleidsbijeenkomst van de ECB van vandaag, een impuls gaven aan safe-haven activa's. De USD/CHF steeg tijdens de Europese handel met meer dan 60 pips en kwam uiteindelijk tot 0.9148. Na een daling van zo'n 15 pips ten opzichte van de Canadese dollar tijdens de vroege ochtendhandel, was de Greenback later op de dag in staat om terug te komen. De USD/CAD steeg met meer dan 30 pips en kwam uiteindelijk tot 0.9987 tegen het einde van de middagsessie.

Vandaag zullen dollartraders, naast de potentieel belangrijke persconferentie van de ECB, letten op het Amerikaanse Unemployment Claims figure, dat zal worden gepubliceerd om 13:30 GMT. Analisten verwachten dat het cijfer van vandaag zal uitkomen op 361K, iets onder de 368K van afgelopen week. Wanneer de verwachtingen juist blijken te zijn, dan zouden beleggers het nieuws kunnen zien als teken dat de werkloosheidssituatie in Amerika verbetert, wat zou kunnen leiden tot extra bullish beweging voor de Greenback tijdens de middaghandel.

EUR

De euro boekte gisteren verliezen ten opzichte van diverse belangrijke valutarivalen, toen de zorgen over de economische situatie in de eurozone tot gevolg hadden dat beleggers hun fondsen verschoven naar safe-haven activa's. De EUR/USD daalde tijdens de Europese sessie met meer dan 50 pips en handelde uiteindelijk op 1.3493. Ondertussen verloor de EUR/JPY tijdens de middaghandel bijna 140 pips en kwam uiteindelijk tot 126.00.

Vandaag zullen de Minimum Bid Rate van de eurozone en de persconferentie van de ECB naar verwachting de hoogstepunten van de handelsdag zijn. Hoewel de ECB volgens de voorspellingen de rente van de eurozone niet zal aanpassen, zal de persconferentie nauwlettend in de gaten worden gehouden voor aanwijzingen over de huidige staat van het economisch herstel in de regio. Elke indicatie van een economische vertraging in de eurozone, zal tijdens de middaghandel waarschijnlijk druk uitoefenen op de gemeenschappelijke valuta.

Goud

Goud begon gisteren tijdens de middaghandel aan een kleine opwaartse correctie, maar bleef over het geheel bearish doordat recente stijgingen van de US-dollar het edelmetaal duurder maakten voor internationale kopers. De prijs steeg met zo'n $10 per ounce en klom naar $1677,90, maar daalde daarna terug naar $1675 tegen het einde van de Europese sessie.

Vandaag zullen goudtraders letten op de persconferentie van de ECB, die op de planning staat voor 13:30 GMT. Elk teken dat het economisch herstel van de eurozone vertraagt zal waarschijnlijk druk uitoefenen op het edelmetaal en zou tijdens de middaghandel een prijsdaling kunnen veroorzaken.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

De Slow Stochastics op de weekly chart vormen bijna een bearish cross, wat aangeeft dat er in de nabije toekomst een neerwaartse correctie zou kunnen komen. Bovendien is de Relative Strength Index op dezelfde chart het overboughtgebied binnengegaan. Het openen van longposities zou voor dit pair de verstandige keuze kunnen zijn.

GBP/USD

De Williams Percent Range op de weekly chart is gedaald tot in het oversoldgebied, wat aangeeft dat er in de nabije toekomst een opwaartse correctie zou kunnen komen. Bovendien lijkt de MACD/OsMA op de daily chart een bullish cross te vormen. Traders zouden kunnen kiezen om longposities te openen.

USD/JPY

De Relative Strength Index op de weekly chart is het overboughtgebied binnengegaan, wat aangeeft dat er in de komende dagen een neerwaartse correctie zou kunnen komen. Deze theorie wordt gesteund door de Slow Stochastics op dezelfde chart, die een bearish cross hebben gevormd. Het openen van shortposities zou voor dit pair de verstandige keuze kunnen zijn.

USD/CHF

Hoewel de Williams Percent Range op de weekly chart het oversoldgebied is binnengegaan, plaatsen de meeste technische indicatoren voor de lange termijn dit pair op neutraal terrein. Traders zouden hier een afwachtende houding kunnen aannemen, daar zich in de nabije toekomst vanzelf een duidelijker plaatje zal aandienen.

Wild Card

AUD/NZD

De Relative Strength Index op de daily chart is gedaald tot in het oversoldgebied, wat aangeeft dat er in de nabije toekomst een opwaartse correctie zou kunnen komen. Daarnaast vormen de Slow Stochastics op dezelfde chart een bullish cross. Dit zou voor forextraders een goed moment kunnen zijn om longposities te openen, in afwachting van een mogelijke bullish beweging.

Indicators

DateTime GMT$€£¥EventPeriodPrev.ForecastImp
2013-02-07EUR
Spanish 10-y Bond Auctionhelp
--5
Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

Average yield on 10-year bonds the government sold at auction, and the bid-to-cover ratio of the auction;

2013-02-07EUR
French 10-y Bond Auctionhelp
2.07|1.7-3
French 10-y Bond Auction

Average yield on 10-year bonds the government sold at auction, and the bid-to-cover ratio of the auction;

2013-02-07GBP
MPC Rate Statementhelp
**5
MPC Rate Statement

This statement is issued by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to communicate with investors about the reasons for their recent interest rate decisions, as well as to discuss the strength of the nation's economy.

2013-02-07EUR
EU Economic Summithelp
**5
EU Economic Summit

Heads of State from European Union countries together with ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet are due to meet about the Greek economic crisis, a potential rescue plan and its impact on the European Union, in Brussels. A press conference is due to be held at the summit's conclusion.

2013-02-0700:30AUD
Employment Changehelp
-5.5K5.8K5
Employment Change

This report measures the number of jobs created during the previous month. It is one of the most important indicators of the economy's health since individual consumption makes up a significant portion of a country's GDP and has a direct correlation with employment.

2013-02-0700:30AUD
Unemployment Ratehelp
5.4%5.5%5
Unemployment Rate

This figure represents the percentage of potential workers that are currently unemployed and actively seeking a job. This report is typically overlooked as its information is derived from previously released indicators.

2013-02-0700:30AUD
NAB Quarterly Business Confidencehelp
-2-3
NAB Quarterly Business Confidence

The National Australia Bank's (NAB) Business Confidence report measures the mood of domestic business in all sectors of the economy except the farming industry.

2013-02-0705:00JPY
Leading Indicatorshelp
92.1%93.8%1
Leading Indicators

This report is combining ten leading indocators in order to measure overall economic health. The leading indicators includes average weekly hours, new orders, consumer expectations, housing permits, stock prices, and interest rate spreads.

2013-02-0706:45CHF
SECO Consumer Climatehelp
-17-113
SECO Consumer Climate

meaure the level of a composite index based on surveyed households;

2013-02-0707:45EUR
French Trade Balancehelp
-4.3B-4.2B1
French Trade Balance

This report measures the difference between imported and exported goods and services from France. A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported;

2013-02-0708:00CHF
Foreign Currency Reserveshelp
427.2B-5
Foreign Currency Reserves

Measures the total value of currency reserves the SNB holds in its account.

2013-02-0709:30GBP
Manufacturing Production m/mhelp
-0.3%0.7%5
Manufacturing Production m/m

Measures the total value of output produced by manufacturers. Manufacturing Production differs from Industrial Production in that it only measures the 13 sub-sectors of production that relate directly to manufacturing. Manufacturing industries make up about 80% of total Industrial Production.

2013-02-0709:30GBP
Trade Balancehelp
-9.2B-8.9B3
Trade Balance

This report measures the difference between imported and exported goods and services. A positive number indicates the country is exporting more goods than it is importing. A country with a growing positive trade balance may see their currency strengthen as a result.

2013-02-0709:30GBP
Industrial Productionhelp
0.3%0.7%1
Industrial Production

This report measures the change in the total inflation adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. When the actual result is higher than forecasted, it tends to have a positive impact on the local currency.

2013-02-0709:45GBP
BOE Gov-Designate Carney Speakshelp
**5
BOE Gov-Designate Carney Speaks

As incoming BOE Governor, starting Jul 2013, volatility will likely be experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to predict his effect on the bank's monetary policy;

2013-02-0711:00EUR
German Industrial Productionhelp
0.2%0.2%3
German Industrial Production

This indicator measures the total value of goods and services produced from the industrial sector of the German economy, including that from mines and utilities.

2013-02-0712:00GBP
Asset Purchase Facilityhelp
375B375B5
Asset Purchase Facility

Measures the total value of money the Bank of England will produce and use to purchase assets in the open market.

2013-02-0712:00GBP
Official Bank Ratehelp
0.50%0.50%5
Official Bank Rate

This indicator represents the recent interest rate decision made by the Bank of England's (BoE) 9 member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Interest rates are a primary determinant of the value of a nation's currency.

2013-02-0712:45EUR
Minimum Bid Ratehelp
0.75%0.75%5
Minimum Bid Rate

The Minimum Bid Rate represents the recent interest rate decision made by the 6 member European Central Bank (ECB) board as well as the 16 central bank governors from each member of the Euro-Zone regional economy. Interest rates are a primary determinant in the value of a currency.

2013-02-0713:30CAD
Building Permitshelp
-17.9%4.3%5
Building Permits

This report is a measure of impending construction activity. It is a significant indicator since the first step in beginning a new construction project is the acquisition of permits granting the approval to do so.

2013-02-0713:30CAD
NHPIhelp
0.1%0.2%3
NHPI

This is a report which measure the change in the selling price of new homes. It's a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity;

2013-02-0713:30EUR
ECB Press Conferencehelp
**5
ECB Press Conference

The European Central Bank will be holding a conference on various economic and financial issues. These conferences typically generate higher trading volumes as traders speculate about future monetary policy decisions.

2013-02-0713:30USD
Unemployment Claimshelp
368K361K5
Unemployment Claims

An indicator which measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance with the government for the first time during the past week. This is one of the earlier releases of economic data.

2013-02-0713:30USD
Prelim Nonfarm Productivityhelp
2.9%-1.3%3
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity

Annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry;

2013-02-0713:30USD
Prelim Unit Labor Costshelp
-1.9%3.1%3
Prelim Unit Labor Costs

Annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry

2013-02-0714:30USD
FOMC Member Stein Speakshelp
**3
FOMC Member Stein Speaks

Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;

2013-02-0715:00GBP
NIESR GDP Estimatehelp
-0.3%-3
NIESR GDP Estimate

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Estimate is a prediction for the past month's official GDP using statistical projection techniques.

2013-02-0715:30USD
Natural Gas Storagehelp
-194B-135B1
Natural Gas Storage

This figure measures the change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in storage by this country from week to week. It has a moderate impact on the price of fuels, but provides mixed results for investors.

2013-02-0720:00USD
Consumer Credithelp
16.0B14.1B1
Consumer Credit

This is a report which measures the total amount of outstanding debt, such as credit cards and auto loans, held by consumers.

2013-02-0723:50JPY
Current Accounthelp
0.23T0.24T5
Current Account

The Current Account is a measure of the trade undertaken by the country. It factors into the Trade Balance and carries an impacton GDP. This is primarily a measure of the quarterly difference in value between imported and exported goods and services.

2013-02-0723:50JPY
Bank Lendinghelp
1.2%-1
Bank Lending

This is a report that measures the change in the total value of new bank loans issued to private consumers and businesses.

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