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הדולר ביציבות, הסוחרים ממתינים לסקר הADP.

Economical News

אתמול , הדולר נסחר במגמה מעורבת מול מרבית המטבעות העיקריים . השטר הירוק נסחר בטווח מצומצם ונוקשה כנגד האירו והפאונד. מנאומו של נגיד הפד אתמול מצטיירת תמונה עגומה לגבי עתיד הכלכלה האמריקאיית. ברננקי הראה שהשפעת משבר האשראי על כל תחומי הכלכלה האמריקאיית ממשיכה להתקיים בצורה חזקה. בעקבות דברי הנגיד , הדולר צנח ורשם שפל כל הזמנים של 1.5275 דולר לאירו בודד ושפל של 3 שנים מול היאן היפני שנעל בשער 103 יאן לדולר בודד. שר האוצר האמריקאי פאולסן נאם גם אתמול, השר ציין כי התחזקות הדולר נמצא בראש סדר העדיפיות של הממשל בארה"ב. יחד עם זאת , חוזי הריבית בארה"ב מראים ב 75% שהריבית תרד ב 0.75% ב 18 בעדכון החדש אשר יתקיים ב 18 למרץ .

היום צפויים להתפרסם בארה"ב דוח התעסוקה של ADP . הדוח מעלה תחזית לגבי מספר המשרות החדשות במגזר הלא חקלאי שנוצרו בארה"ב בפברואר . הדוח הרשמי צפוי להתפרסם ביום שישי הקרוב ונחשב לאחדד האינדקטורים החיוניים והחשובים ביותר למדוד את כלכלת ארה"ב . בינאור המדד הרשמי הצביע על 126 אלף משרות חדשות . דוח ה ADP לחודש פברואר מראה ירידה של יותר מ 90 %, הציפיות הן ל 10 אלף משרות חדשות בלבד , הנתון , אם יצא כצפוי, מעיד על היחלשות מתמשכת וחדה צפויה לדולר ולכלכלת ארה"ב בעתיד הקרוב. בגוש היורו צפויים להתפרסם היום מדד השירותים PMI ומכירות קמעונאיות לחודש פברואר . המדדים צפויים להראות שיפורים קלים ולחזק את החיוביות שמאפיינת את האירו בתקופה האחרונה ולהראות יציבות כלכלית באירופה.

מחירי הסחורות ממשיכים לשבור שיאים בצורה כמעט יומיומית לאור החששות מהיחלשות הדולר ומהמיתון הצפוי הקרב על הכלכלה בארה"ב. הזהב, שנחשב לאופציית גידור מפני האינפלציה בארה"ב , מגרד את הרף הפסיכולוגי של אלף דולר לאונקיה . הנפט בתורו נסחר אמש סביב רמות שיא של 103 דולר לחבית .

בזירה המקומית , השקל התחזק אתמול ב 0.45% מול הדולר האמריקאי וננעל אמש על בשער 3.6260 שקל לדולר בודד . האירו ננעל אתמול מעל 5.46 שקלים לאירו בודד . המטבע המקומי פתח היום את המסחר בעליה קלה נגד הדולר וצפוי להמשיך להתחזק בעקבות הנתונים המדאיגים לגבי הכלכלה בארה"ב.

Technical Analysis

Wild Card

forex

Indicators

DateTime GMT$€£¥EventPeriodPrev.ForecastImp
2008-03-0500:01GBP
Consumer Confidence Indexhelp
81803
Consumer Confidence Index

The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index (NCCI) measures the mood of consumers in regard to economic conditions. The reading is derived from a monthly survey that asks respondents to evaluate the prospects for the economy in the future.

2008-03-0500:30AUD
GDPhelp
q/q1.0%0.6%5
GDP

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. GDP is the broadest measure of activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. To foreign investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably because it spurs investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets. More importantly, the central bank is more likely to raise interest rates in the face of a strong and growing economy. The combination of these effects can have a large impact on the demand for the nation's currency.

2008-03-0508:55EUR
German Services PMIhelp
49.250.81
German Services PMI

The Services Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

2008-03-0509:30GBP
Services PMIhelp
52.552.34
Services PMI

The Services Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

2008-03-0510:00EUR
Retail Saleshelp
m/m-0.1%0.3%1
Retail Sales

Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.

2008-03-0513:15USD
ADP Nonfarm Employment Changehelp
126K10K4
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

Measures the number of new jobs created in the previous month, excluding the farming industry. ADP, a leading provider of employment solutions for businesses, releases this indicator two days before the highly anticipated official Nonfarm Employment Change. ADP claims that this indicator has predictive value in regard to official statistics, but it hasn't yet gained acclaim from traders due to it's short history.

2008-03-0513:30USD
Nonfarm Productivityhelp
q/q1.8%1.8%3
Nonfarm Productivity

Measures the annualized quarterly growth in labor efficiency for producing goods and services outside the farming sector. A rising trend indicates future inflationary pressures as manufacturers raise prices in response to an at-capacity factory environment.

2008-03-0513:30USD
Unit Labor Costshelp
q/q2.1%2.1%1
Unit Labor Costs

Measures the relationship between compensation per hour and productivity, or output per hour minus inflation. Higher hourly compensation increases unit labor costs; labor productivity improvements offset compensation increases and lower unit labor costs. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When businesses pay more for labor, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so traders view wage inflation as a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

2008-03-0515:30USD
Crude Oil Inventorieshelp
3.2-1
Crude Oil Inventories

The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly increase in barrels of commercial crude oil held in inventory by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation and other economic forces.

2008-03-0519:00USD
Beige Bookhelp
--1
Beige Book

Provides a look at how regional Federal Reserve branches view the economy in their area. It is produced two weeks before the monetary policy meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), who uses the book's anecdotal evidence to help determine the path for interest rates.

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