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DOLAR ESTADOUNIDENSE

El DOLAR obtuvo resultados mixtos durante el día de ayer y continuó su avance frente a las principales divisas. La evolución positiva del DOLAR fue apoyada por una serie de datos negativos provenientes desde la Unión Europea. Asimismo, el DOLAR se benefició, tras la caída del valor del petróleo, dado que el huracán Gustav no causó daños significativos en las instalaciones petroleras del Golfo de México.

Ayer, el Factory Orders obtuvo un incremento superando las expectativas del 1,3% en julio, y el par EURO/DOLAR alcanzó los 1.4485, para luego registrarse alrededor de la zona de los 1,4383. Asimismo, contra el YEN, el DOLAR rondó los 108,12.

El DOLAR ha ganando terreno en las últimas semanas y sigue beneficiándose de las preocupaciones económicas mundiales. Esto se debe a que los inversores están buscando ávidamente empujar al DOLAR, en lugar de a otras monedas, cuyos países sopesan los efectos de la crisis mundial del crédito. Mañana, el Banco Central Europeo y el Banco Central Inglés publicarán por separado las tasas de interés de referencia, y se espera que ambos mantengan sus tasas sin variación, lo que probablemente contribuirá a un mayor impulso para el DOLAR.

Hoy se publicará el ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP). Otros eventos que serán publicados el día de hoy serán, a saber, el Unemployment Claims, el ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI y el Crude Oil Inventories. Los resultados del ADP se espera que sean negativos en -30K y podrían poner fin al fortalecimiento del DOLAR. Es importante señalar que el ADP ha sido inexacto en los últimos meses en cuanto a la estimación de las cifras reales del NFP. El Unemployment Claims, uno de los indicadores más influyentes, está pronosticado para disminuir en 3K. El ISM se espera que disminuya ligeramente a 49,4 desde los 49,5. Asimismo, el Crude Oil Inventories se espera que siga siendo positivo. Si los datos económicos no muestran ninguna sorpresa, es probable que continúe el impulso para el DOLAR.

EURO

Ayer, el EURO obtuvo una tendencia bajista contra la mayoría de las divisas. El EURO obtuvo una baja contra el DOLAR, alcanzando valores que no registraba hace ocho meses, luego de una inesperada caída del 0,4% en el Retail Sales, lo que colocó al EURO en su nivel más bajo de lo que va del año. Los datos económicos publicados ayer confirman que la economía se redujo un 0,2% en el segundo trimestre, y podría seguir esta tendencia para el tercer trimestre también. Esto refuerza la posibilidad de que la economía europea podría estar dirigiéndose hacia una recesión.

Existe una creciente expectativa sobre el Banco Central Europeo por la decisión de las tasas de interés que se anunciará hoy. El Banco Central Europeo se ha alarmado acerca de cómo la inflación ha ido ganando terreno y ha anunciado que tomará medidas. Sin embargo, por el momento, las tasas se mantendrán intactas.

Hoy, el Factory Orders alemán se publicará a las 10:00 GMT, y se espera que mejore en un 0,4% con respecto a la caída del mes pasado de 2,9%. Asimismo, se espera la sesión del Banco Central Europeo por la decisión sobre las tasas de interés, donde no se prevén cambios para las mismas, que se encuentran en 4,25% actualmente. El EURO podría finalmente ver algunos signos de fortalecimiento, por primera vez desde el comienzo de la semana, cuando el presidente del Banco Central Europeo, Jean-Claude Trichet, brinde el discurso programado para la fecha. La conferencia estará abierta a preguntas por parte de la prensa, lo que generalmente conduce a una fuerte volatilidad en los mercados. Los operadores deberían seguir las noticias de hoy, dado que se espera una fuerte fluctuación en el mercado tras la declaración de las tasas de interés.

YEN JAPONES

Ayer el YEN obtuvo una tendencia alcista frente a la mayoría de las divisas. Lo más notable fue contra el EURO, dado que el par descendió 100 pips colocándose en el nivel de los 156,00.

Ayer, los indicadores que describen el estado de la economía en Japón no se hicieron públicos.

Las expectativas del bajo rendimiento de la moneda se han mantenido firmes, luego de que los inversores llegaran a la conclusión de que el Banco Central Europeo no aumentará las tasas de interés. Como resultado, varios extranjeros compraron activos japoneses, que a largo plazo, beneficiarán a la moneda japonesa.

El único evento económico que se publicará hoy es el Capital Spending, y se estima que alcanzará los 1,2%. Se trata de un cambio sustancial tras la caída del 3% en el gasto del primer trimestre. Al parecer, tanto el DOLAR y como el EURO esperan gran volatilidad hoy, y el YEN podría beneficiarse de dicho fenómeno.

Los operadores deberían prestar atención a las noticias procedentes de los Estados Unidos y de la Unión Europea, dado que ambos serán los factores decisivos en el movimiento del YEN para el jueves.

Technical Analysis

Wild Card

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Market Trend

	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	AUD/USD	EUR/GBP
Daily Trend
Weekly Trend
Resistance	1.4565	1.7830	108.90	1.1130	0.8405	0.8245
	1.4545	1.7810	108.70	1.1110	0.8385	0.8225
	1.4515	1.7780	108.40	1.1090	0.8355	0.8195
Support	1.4455	1.7720	107.80	1.1030	0.8295	0.8135
	1.4425	1.7690	107.50	1.1000	0.8265	0.8105
	1.4405	1.7670	107.30	1.0980	0.8245	0.8085

Indicators

Date	Time GMT	$€£¥	Event	Period	Prev.	Forecast	Imp
2008-09-04	00:00	GBP	MPC Rate Statement		*	*
		MPC Rate Statement Usual Effect More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency Monthly; FF Notes This is a "Tentative" event because the statement is not issued if the rate doesn't change (except under extreme conditions). If the statement is not issued this event will be removed from the calendar immediately following the release. If issued, the Tentative mark will be removed; Acronyms Bank of England (BOE), Monetary Policy Committee (MPC); Why Traders Care It's one of primary methods the MPC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates, commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their vote, and most importantly, clues on the outcome of future votes;
2008-09-04	01:30	AUD	Trade Balance		0.4B	0.1B
		Trade Balance Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. A positive Trade Balance indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported over a given period. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When higher levels of exports are sold to the world, demand for the nation's currency is elevated as foreigners convert their native currency to purchase the exports. The Trade Balance also has a sizable impact on GDP because high demand for exports creates increased employment and production, as domestic factories work to fill this demand.
2008-09-04	08:00	GBP	Halifax House Price Index	m/m	-1.7%	-1.8%
		Halifax House Price Index Measures the monthly change in the average sale price of homes finances by the Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS). Halifax is the UK's largest mortgage lender uses internal mortgage lending figures to produce the index.
2008-09-04	10:00	EUR	German Factory Orders	m/m	-2.9%	0.4%
		German Factory Orders Measures the value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods.
2008-09-04	11:00	GBP	Official Bank Rate		5.00%	5.00%
		Official Bank Rate Measures Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the BOE to other banks; Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency Monthly; FF Notes When there is a change in rates the MPC will also issue a statement. Rate shifts are usually priced in the market and thus overshadowed by the MPC statement which is focused on the future; Acronyms Bank of England (BOE), Monetary Policy Committee (MPC); Also Called Interest Rates, BOE Rate; Why Traders Care Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future; Derived Via The 9 members of the MPC vote on where to set the rate. The individual votes are published 2 weeks later in the MPC Meeting Minutes;
2008-09-04	11:45	EUR	Minimum Bid Rate		4.25%	4.25%
		Minimum Bid Rate Measures The interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system; Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency Monthly; FF Notes The rate shift is usually priced in the market and thus overshadowed by the ECB press conference held 45 minutes later. Acronyms European Central Bank (ECB); Also Called Refi Rate; Why Traders Care Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future; Derived Via The 6 members of the ECB and the 15 governors of the Euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate. The split of votes is not publicly revealed;
2008-09-04	12:15	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change		9K	-30K
		ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Measures the number of new jobs created in the previous month, excluding the farming industry. ADP, a leading provider of employment solutions for businesses, releases this indicator two days before the highly anticipated official Nonfarm Employment Change. ADP claims that this indicator has predictive value in regard to official statistics, but it hasn't yet gained acclaim from traders due to it's short history.
2008-09-04	12:30	EUR	ECB Press Conference		-	-
		ECB Press Conference Speaker ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and Vice President Lucas Papademos; Usual Effect More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency Monthly, about 45 minutes after the rate release; FF Notes There are two parts to the press conference: first Trichet reads a prepared statement (a text version is made public at the start), then the conference is open to press questions. Since the questions are not known beforehand they can make for some unscripted moments that lead to heavy market volatility; Why Traders Care It's the primary method the ECB uses to communicate with investors. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate decision, the overall economic outlook, inflation, and most importantly, clues regarding future monetary policy;
2008-09-04	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims		425K	422K
		Unemployment Claims Measures The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week; Usual Effect Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends; FF Notes This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes; Why Traders Care Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor conditions; Also Called Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;
2008-09-04	12:30	USD	Revised Nonfarm Productivity	q/q	2.2%	3.3%
		Revised Nonfarm Productivity Annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry
2008-09-04	12:30	USD	Revised Unit Labor Costs	q/q	1.3%	0.1%
		Revised Unit Labor Costs Annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry
2008-09-04	14:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI		49.5	49.4
		ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry; Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency Released monthly, on the third business day after the month ends; Next Release Oct 3, 2008 FF Notes Source changed series calculation formula as of Feb 2008. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction; Why Traders Care It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Also Called Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business; Acronyms The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);
2008-09-04	14:35	USD	Natural Gas Storage		102B	88B
		Natural Gas Storage Measures Change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week; Usual Effect No clear effect, there are both inflationary and growth implications; Frequency Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends; FF Notes While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's massive oil sands; Acronyms Energy Information Administration (EIA); Also Called Nat Gas Stocks, Nat Gas Inventories; Why Traders Care It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods;
2008-09-04	15:00	USD	Crude Oil Inventories		-0.1M	-0.1
		Crude Oil Inventories Measures Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week; Usual Effect No clear effect, there are both inflationary and growth implications; Frequency Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends; FF Notes While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's massive oil sands; Why Traders Care It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods; Also Called Crude Stocks, Crude Levels; Acronyms Energy Information Administration (EIA);
2008-09-04	17:40	USD	FOMC Member Fisher Speaks		-	-
		FOMC Member Fisher Speaks Due to deliver a speech titled "Monetary Policy in a Technology Driven World" at the Progress and Freedom Foundation 2008 Summit, in Aspen. Audience questions expected;
2008-09-04	23:30	AUD	AIG Construction Index		41.6	-
		AIG Construction Index Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed construction companies; Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency Released monthly, on the fifth business day after the month ends; Next Release Oct 6, 2008 FF Notes Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction; Derived Via Survey of about 200 construction companies which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Also Called Performance of Construction Index; Acronyms Australian Industry Group (AIG);
2008-09-04	23:50	JPY	Capital Spending	q/q	-4.9%	1.2%
		Capital Spending Measures the total amount of new capital expenditures by private businesses. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because high levels of business investment are a sign of a strong economy.