Forex Tips & Daily Analysis

Economical News

USD

Yesterday, saw a return to mixed results by the greenback against its most commonly traded currency pairs, as the week continues to be driven by how world economies react to the unstable and disappointing US economy. Last Friday's release of the Non Farm payrolls could still have a lasting effect on dollar value, as the 17K job loss from January had initially ravaged the greenback, leaving some uncertainty as to if and for how long it will be a factor.

A large portion of the focus for this week will not be on US economic data alone, but outside data which in large part will be reacting to last week's full schedule from the US.

Interest rate statements will be announced this week in Australia, Europe and Great Britain, each of which are expected to react differently to the greenback's 125bp cut over the last 2 weeks by the Federal Reserve. Firstly, Australia is expected to raise their interest rate to 7%, a 25bp bump from its benchmark rate, as Australian economists expect to see record highs for the Aussie dollar against the USD, which could breach the 90 cent mark today. The British, on the other hand, seem to be leaning toward rate cuts to try and revive the British economy. As the week continues on, a small collection of important US economic data will be released. Pending Home Sales, Unemployment claims, Non-Farm Productivity are all set to individually push the greenback forward. On tap today is the release of ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for the month of January. The 15:00 GMT release is expected to fall slightly from 54.4 to 53.0 but should not cause as much volatility as usual, due to the small expected change. The manufacturing figure, coupled with 3 less significant figures to be released today, will likely keep the dollar trading within a small range.

EUR

With all the talk of movement in world interest rates, such as cuts in Britain and the US and hikes in Australia, the ECB continues its hawkish stance regarding it currency and will more likely than not keep rates the same ahead of Thursday's scheduled Interest Rate announcement. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, seems keen on keeping the thriving 15 nation currency intact, keeping rates at 4% flat. PPI and Consumer Confidence both returned negatively yesterday, having little effect on the EUR currency crosses.

As Thursday's interest rate announcement slowly approaches, today could be an important one for the EUR, as most of its significant data for the week is on today's schedule. First is the 8:55 GMT release of German Service PMI, which is forecasted to lose 0.7 points. That will be followed by a 10:00 GMT announcement of Retail Sales for the month of January, which is forecasting at 0.2%, 7 percentage points up from its last measurement. These two figures should set the tone for the next couple of days, as all other EUR data will not appear until Thursday.

It is no surprise that the EUR continues to dominate the USD, with elections and uncertainty still a big factor regarding the dollar; we should begin to see a bigger push by the EUR as it moves toward $1.50. If economic data returns with better than expected results, we could very well get to that mark faster than expected.

JPY

The JPY saw a decline in value yesterday versus most of its major counterparts as carry trading slowly picked up pace ahead of expected Australian interest rate hikes. Another interesting trend has been the relationship between the JPY and the global stock markets, as the Japanese currency gets its most movement when responding to global financial trends. More importantly has been the direct relationship between carry trading and the Dow Jones. The two used to be directly correlated as one dictated the others movement in the opposite direction; however in recent days the trend seems to be changing. Yesterday the JPY spent a good portion of its time, in the midst of growing carry trade behavior, whereas the Dow Jones slowly fell all day long. Such behavior has forced investors to retool their strategies regarding the JPY.

Today, the Japanese economy will be absent on the economic calendar as we look ahead towards Wednesday's Leading Index and Thursday's Machine Tool Orders.

As the Aussie dollar continues to strengthen, this could push the JPY down further and further. This will likely be the case until at least the end of this week.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

After a relatively choppy session overnight the pair now consolidates around 1.4820. The momentum on the 4 hour chart is mixed with a slight bullish tendency, as the daily chart indicates a stronger bullish momentum. It is advised to wait for a break above 1.4830 before initiating a long position.

GBP/USD

The cable bottomed at 1.9350 and since, is showing bullish momentum that appears to be continuing with little interruption. The hourlies are moderately bullish, and the daily chart is showing that a bullish break might be imminent. Going long appears to be the right choice today.

USD/JPY

The pair is still floating in a range with no distinct direction or momentum. The hourlies are floating in neutral territory and the daily slow stochastic is showing a slightly bullish momentum. Forex traders are advised to wait for a clear signal before entering in any direction.

USD/CHF

The pair has started to accumulate bullish momentum as the 1.0900 level was breached. The 4 hour slow stochastic is showing a growing bullish momentum as the daily chart supports the bullish notion. A breach through 1.0940 will validate this move and might take the pair back to the 1.1000 levels again.

Wild Card

Gold

Gold has made a failed attempt to breach through the 898.60 level which is a key Fibonacci support level. The inability to breach that level generates fresh new bullish momentum with a target of 907.00 at the local level. This could be a great opportunity for Forex trader to enjoy a very strong reversal move.

Market Trend

	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	AUD/USD	EUR/GBP
Daily Trend
Weekly Trend
Resistance	1.4900	1.9822	107.83	1.1000	0.9170	0.7592
	1.4875	1.9799	107.53	1.0970	0.9134	0.7561
	1.4850	1.9780	107.25	1.0945	0.9100	0.7530
Support	1.4770	1.9700	106.50	1.0850	0.9020	0.7470
	1.4740	1.9685	106.34	1.0824	0.8975	0.7440
	1.4715	1.9651	106.15	1.0800	0.8950	0.7400

Indicators

Date	Time GMT	$€£¥	Event	Period	Prev.	Forecast	Imp
2008-02-05	03:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index		53.9	-
		ISM Non-Manufacturing Index The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
2008-02-05	03:30	AUD	Interest Rate Statement		6.75%	-
		Interest Rate Statement The Central Bank Governing Council releases an Interest Rate Statement each month. The statement contains the latest decision regarding changes to the countries short term interest rate ("minimum bid rate"). A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. What makes interest rates so important is that high rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which significantly increases demand for the nation's currency. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down. This is what makes inflation-predicting indicators so important. Traders know that rising prices will lead the central bank to raise interest rates, which ultimately leads to a more valuable currency.
2008-02-05	08:55	EUR	German Services PMI		51.2	-
		German Services PMI The Services Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
2008-02-05	09:30	GBP	Services PMI		52.4	-
		Services PMI The Services Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
2008-02-05	10:00	EUR	Retail Sales	m/m	-0.6%	-
		Retail Sales Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.
2008-02-05	12:30	AUD	Retail Sales	m/m	0.8%	-
		Retail Sales Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.
2008-02-05	12:30	AUD	Building Approvals	m/m	8.9%	-
		Building Approvals Measures the number of new construction intentions. This data is a leading indicator for the construction industry since the issuance of a building permit is one of the first steps in the construction process.