Forex Tips & Daily Analysis

Economical News

USD

As we wrap up 2007, the greenback finished up the last week of the year, similar to how it started it; at a loss. A flurry of negative economic data has ransacked any chance that the dollar might have had, to recover against its major counterparts before the year's end. Friday was no different, as New Home Sales figures came back lower than the already disappointing expectations. Chicago PMI numbers, which focus on manufacturer purchases, returned with positive results but could not revive the dollar's momentous drop following housing sales numbers.

The housing market has been one of the main catalysts in the greenback's detrimental fall over the second half of 2007. Along with the credit crisis, housing has not shown any signs of turning the corner, and continues to put a heavy strain on the US economy. Prospective home owners in the US are holding out, with the expectation that market prices will still drop. Unfortunately, buyers are what are needed most in the economy right now.

This week, the US economy will continue to release critical economic data, which should map out how the month of January will proceed. As we head into the New Year's holiday on Tuesday, the economic calendar will see CPI, ISM and Non-Farm indices released. This data, coupled with Unemployment claims, will be started off by today's 15:00 GMT publication of Existing Home Sales. Expectations are that the figure will return equal to last month's figure of just under 5 million dollars.

As the dollar continues to falter against its major currency counterparts (closing in on 1.48 versus the Euro), it is likely that we will continue to see the same bearish movement as we approach 2008.

EUR

The Euro continues to be a strong and steady option for investors, as it just completed 6 straight trading sessions in positive territory against the dollar as it closes in on 1.48, once again. If it wasn't enough that UK, US and Japanese data has been less than stellar, the Euro-zone economies look to be flourishing, and the effect of such is being shown in the EUR's movement.

As members of the European Central Bank continue be hawkish in their perception of the Euro, the economic data being released by the EU has helped make gains not only in price but in stature.

Last week, saw yet another irrelevant news week from the 13-nation currency, as it instead, reacted positively to a wide range of negative world economic events that took place. Rise in Oil prices, crumbling US economic data and the turmoil in Pakistan sent the Euro's biggest competitor (the dollar) into a freefall as the EUR/USD hit two week highs, and continued to push into the early stages of Monday, solidifying its position over the 1.47 support level.

The week ahead will see much of the same, as there are no really important news events to be released in regards to the European currency. We will see yearly CPI figures as well as a host of manufacturing figures, which should not have a real impact on the EUR

The Euro should continue to make progress against its major counterparts as we enter 2008.

JPY

The JPY continued its tug of war at weeks' end, between positive Japanese economic data and the drop in stock prices around the world. Late Friday, saw the Dow Jones drop after making some significant gains that forced carry traders to weaken their JPY positions.

Japanese economic news showed a brighter light for the Asian economy as a good deal of news was released last week. Unemployment Rates and Retail Sales were both positive, as they joined the unexpected strengthening of Core Consumer Prices to present a decent push against its major counterparts.

Industrial Production, which had been a detriment to Japan's economic outlook, fell much less than initially expected. This helped the JPY restart trading early Monday, as it will have to be dependent on outside factors this week. The Japanese will spend the next four days observing the Japanese Bank Holiday, as low volatility is expected from Tokyo. With no other economic data on tap, followers of the JPY should continue to pay attention to the Dow and how it is affected by the ongoing Housing problems and the newly found political turmoil in Pakistan.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

The bullish trend on the daily chart seems to be out of steam as the next target price is located at 1.4786 (Fibonacci 76.4%). Indicators show that an upcoming reversal is expected with the first target price at 1.4704 (Fibonacci 61.8%).

Today, selling on highs around 1.4736 appears to be preferable.

GBP/USD

Yesterday, the 1.9946 resistance level (Fibonacci 23.6%) was breached as this pair headed to 2.0050 (Fibonacci 23.6%), which is supported by the Slow Stochastic with a positive sharp slope. It looks as if the cable is steadily approaching the 2.0000 level and might get there before the market closes today.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY broke the 112.00 resistance and the downtrend is supported by 1 Hour exponential moving averages. The volatility is low and the Bollinger bands have tightened. We should expect to see the bearish configuration continue. The 4 Hour Elliott pattern implies that the USD/JPY will continue to gather momentum. The target price might be 111.50

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF is in a bearish configuration. The volatility has increased. USD/CHF swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). Bollinger bands are flat. 1H, 4H Elliott pattern implies a continuation of the bearish pressure. The target is expected at 1.1200.

Wild Card

Gold

Since last week there is an extremely accurate upwards channel forming on the 4 Hour chart. Gold has made a significant move and is displaying a healthy consistent move up with plenty of room to run. The next significant resistance level is around 845.00 which provides forex traders with a great opportunity to jump into this massive uptrend with large momentum still steaming.

Market Trend

	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	AUD/USD	EUR/GBP
Daily Trend
Weekly Trend
Resistance	1.4826	2.0037	113.87	1.1420	0.8900	0.7450
	1.4800	2.0010	113.56	1.1380	0.8843	0.7420
	1.4735	1.9982	112.73	1.1300	0.8820	0.7380
Support	1.4675	1.9930	111.73	1.1320	0.8773	0.7300
	1.4600	1.9900	111.36	1.1247	0.8700	0.7270
	1.4544	1.9872	111.00	1.1200	0.8672	0.7242

Indicators

Date	Time GMT	$€£¥	Event	Period	Prev.	Forecast	Imp
2007-12-31	15:00	USD	Existing Home Sales		4.97M	4.97M
		Existing Home Sales Measures the annualized number of existing homes sold in the previous month. Existing Home Sales make up a larger portion of the housing market than New Home Sales, and therefore are an important indicator of trends in the housing market. This indicator is published monthly by the National Association of Realtors.