Forex Tips & Daily Analysis

Economical News

USD

Yesterday saw the release of the Durable goods figures from the US. As the slowing US economy continues its direction, there was little hope that Novembers Durable goods numbers would surprise on the upside. Initial expectations had goods making a modest growth of roughly 3%, however the reality was only 0.1%. After steady declines over the last four months, some had hoped that the lethargic US economy might get some sort of boost. Instead, durable goods came back disappointing and once again the greenback began to tumble. The dollar found itself in familiar territory against the EUR, once again passing the 1.46 level.

International news was a big factor in Wednesday trading as the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, left the dollar in a freefall against it major counterparts. Turmoil within allied US countries has had an abysmal effect on the greenback, this latest event being the proverbial "Icing on the Cake", as some hoped the dollar would continue to strengthen as it has been doing in the last week or so. Now the Fed is once again put in the precarious position of having to facilitate some more confidence in the greenback to avoid any more of its current losses. As we wrap up the month of December and the 2007 calendar year, it is growing increasingly evident that the dollar will most likely not make a charge into 2008. It should be interesting, as investors generally see a rise in the dollar in January as people renew their investments.

Today, amidst a fairly slow economic news day, we will see the release of the Chicago PMI and US Home Sales figures. Investors remain cautious of manufacturing figures out of the US, which leads some to believe that PMI numbers will also be disappointing. The housing market in the US has been the brunt of most of the problems in the US for quite some time. Forecasts for today's 1500 GMT release expect a 10K decrease in New Home Sales from 728K to 718K. The dollar should likely continue its bearish spell.

EUR

Yesterday the EUR found itself absent from the economic calendar, as major news was circulated from Japan and the US for the most part. Still, the EUR performed better than its major counterparts, posting steady gains against the JPY, GBP and USD. The CHF found a way to marginally outrun the EUR yesterday, yet this still does not command the same attention as the EUR gains.

The European Central Bank has displayed hawkish behavior for some time now. That, coupled with the encouraging emergence in the Euro-zone economy has paid significant dividend for the 13-Nation currency. Yesterday the EUR saw steady increases against the dollar, as it tested 1.4630 as it makes a case once again to test the 1.50 level. During the course of early afternoon trading in Europe yesterday, the EURGBP made a 50 pip jump, peaking at just around 0.7340.

As we approach 2008, the EUR looks ripe to continue its gains from 2007, as US economic data along with UK data continues to disappoint. With emerging markets so heavily staked in the weakening dollar, it will be intriguing to see the kind of role that EUR will play in '08. Nations such as China have voiced on several occasions the possibility of moving some of their reserves into EUR, in order to stabilize some of the pressure being caused by the listless US economy.

Today is a slow day for economic news, as the only EUR news worth paying some attention to will be German PMI numbers. Even amidst some sort of surprise, the EUR seems likely to continue its climb.

JPY

The JPY was expected to suffer some losses yesterday, after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto sent the Dow Jones reeling, down almost 200 points. Instead the only cross with the JPY that suffered was the USDJPY, leading investors to believe that the dollar was the real disappointment.

The Japanese also joined the ongoing sentiment felt by the US and EU that China must allow their fragile Yuan to appreciate quicker, in order to ease strain on its greenback reserves.

Nevertheless, traders should closely monitor the performance of equities as the correlation between stocks and the JPY crosses has been evident over-and-over again and the future direction of the JPY may very well depend on the performance of US stocks.

Today is expected a void of data therefore, most price movement on JPY pegged currencies will be derived from the European and American market events.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

In the past few days the pair is going through a volatile session, and is giving mixed signals on the hourly level but they are still tending to be bullish. The daily chart is showing bullish formation, and it looks as if the pair is heading toward the 1.4700 level. A preferable strategy might be going long for the short run.

GBP/USD

A bullish channel is establishing on the 4 Hour chart, the Slow Stochastic crossed at 80, Momentum and RSI both having a positive slope which implying that much more room is left for the current bullish trend. Today, going long with the trend seems to be the preferable strategy.

USD/JPY

There is a sharp bearish trend shown on the daily chart and it seems that there is still steam left for the continuation of the JPY strengthening as the Slow Stochastic ,RSI and Momentum still have a negative slope.

USD/CHF

The RSI and Slow Stochastic support the current bearish trend when the next support level is located at 1.1300, in case of a break out we may see this pair breaking the 1.1200 and heading for 1.1170.

Wild Card

Gold

The 4 Hour chart implies that the current bullish trend is to maintain its momentum and the first barrier is located at 831.00 and it is expected to breach this level since the Slow Stochastic, RSI and Momentum are supporting this bullish trend. Forex traders may use this opportunity to go long which seems preferable today.

Market Trend

	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	AUD/USD	EUR/GBP
Daily Trend
Weekly Trend
Resistance	1.4735	2.0037	113.87	1.1456	0.8843	0.7450
	1.4705	2.0010	113.56	1.1420	0.8820	0.7420
	1.4682	1.9982	113.25	1.1380	0.8790	0.7380
Support	1.4615	1.9930	112.73	1.1320	0.8733	0.7300
	1.4573	1.9900	112.36	1.1285	0.8700	0.7270
	1.4544	1.9872	112.00	1.1247	0.8672	0.7242

Indicators

Date	Time GMT	$€£¥	Event	Period	Prev.	Forecast	Imp
2007-12-28	07:00	GBP	Nationwide House Prices		-0.8%	-
		Nationwide House Prices Measures the monthly change in the average price for a house in the UK. It serves as a leading inflation indicator for the housing market.
2007-12-28	10:30	CHF	Leading Index	m/m	2.02	-
		Leading Index Measures overall economic health by combining ten leading indicators including average weekly hours, new orders, consumer expectations, housing permits, stock prices, and interest rate spreads. The index is published monthly by The Conference Board, a leading private US research group, but traders tend to pay little attention because the components that make up the index are reported at an earlier date.
2007-12-28	15:00	USD	New Home Sales		728	-