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USD

Yesterday was Thanksgiving holiday and the US dollar came under constant pressure, bouncing off another record low against the EUR touching the 1.4872 mark. It is still believed by many forex traders and major banks, that problems to U.S. economic growth still exists and more Americans are forecasted to suffer from the credit and the mortgage crisis. US housing crisis still remains the source of recent troubles with US development and therefore consequently the dollar is less preferential at this stage against other major currencies. The Greenback has not passed the pain barrier just yet and it is forecasted to suffer further collapses. At the heart of the dollar's weakness is the outlook of a weakening US economy mainly influenced by the subprime crises still being felt just as inflation concerns are rising to the surface, which is chiefly influenced by the resent elevated oil prices. In addition, the last fall in weekly mortgage requests, symbols a stress in the labor market.

The labor market shows signs of minor advance. We noticed, on the basis of data, which was published on Wednesday that the number of U.S. workers filing initial claims for jobless benefits was reported to have fallen by 11,000 in the week ended November 17, in line with expectations, but still the market was not very optimistic regarding this result. The U.S. currency undermined for a fifth day against the 13 nation currency. Losses from U.S. subprime-mortgage, attached with slowing economic growth and falling house prices, could rise to as much as $300 billion, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said yesterday in a statement released in Paris, and as it stands, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to stop subprime-mortgage losses pushing the U.S. economy into recession. Therefore the outlook for the greenback still remains very bleak and we will see dollar continue to slide to new record lows against the EUR. The U.S currency is unlikely to reverse in the near future as many analysts believe that a weak dollar is in the Fed's interest and that they are purposefully devaluating the currency, so until there is a change in attitude by the Fed there should not be any noticeable reversal.

EUR

Yesterday during the holiday trading the EUR stroked a new record high against the U.S. dollar and has reached the level of 1.4873 per US dollar. The 13 nation currency, the Cable and other currencies have been climbing steadily against the dollar since August on the back of fears of the state of the U.S. economy and these fears strengthened by the subprime credit crisis.

The US dollar has been further weakened by U.S. interest-rate cuts -- which can be used to jump-start an economy but can also weaken a currency as investors transfer funds to countries where they can earn higher returns. The Federal Reserve has already cut rates twice.

Yesterday the 13 nation currency increased and got stronger against the US dollar on the basis of different assumptions of the European Central Bank policy makers regarding the future steps which will be taken in order to deal with the issues of inflation; which probably will accelerate during the short term, and will create the need for the central bank to resume raising interest rates.

Europe's single currency also rose against the yen after the yield premium investors earn on 10-year German bunds over similar-maturity Japanese government bonds increased to 2.60 percentage points yesterday.

In other news yesterday, UK data out showed a sharp slow down in business investment, darkening the outlook for the overall economy. The data kept pressure on the pound which is now close to its lowest against the EUR since May 2003.

JPY

Today Japanese financial markets were closed for the Labor Thanksgiving Day holiday and therefore trading volumes were slightly below average.

Yesterday since the early trading hours the Japanese currency strengthened against all 16 most-actively traded currencies including the South African rand and Australian dollar, The Japanese yen strengthened as investors avoided so- called carry trades. A strong yen hurts Japan's exporters by grinding down their foreign-earned income.

Today, the dollar fell below 108 per Japanese yen for the first time since 2005. During the early trading hours in Asia, The yen climbed to 107.69 per dollar, the highest since June 10, 2005. It also was at 160.92 versus the EUR from 161.07 yesterday and 162.86 on Nov. 16.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.3 percent, erasing a loss of 1.1 percent. The Nikkei had a correlation of 0.95 with the dollar against the yen in the past month. A reading of 1 would mean the dollar and the index moved in lockstep. As global equity markets continue there bearish trend and currency volatility remains the name of the game, the JPY should continue its bullish rampage.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

The 4 H and the daily chart indicate that the current strong bullish trend is not out of steam yet as the long term Moving Average (Weighted 21) crossed by a bullish bar. Additionally the ADX (Average Directional Movement) also strengthens our opinion while the DI+ is on its way to crossing the DI- from below which is considered a bullish signal. Going long seems to be preferable and a longer term strategy by buying on a correction or a dip will be optimal .

GBP/USD

The cable rose sharply yesterday and breached well beyond the key 2.0750 level. However it has been unable to maintain its bullish momentum. Indicators on the 4 H chart are fairly neutral but the daily chart is slightly bearish, so traders should exercise caution today.

USD/JPY

There is a fairly wide bearish channel appearing on the 4 H chart indicating that there is still room to maneuver downwards. Bollinger bands are widened indicating increased volatility. This pair is now likely to target the 107.00 level.

USD/CHF

After bottoming at 1.0890 the pair has corrected a bit and is now trading at 1.0935. However a strong bearish configuration is forming on the 4 hour chart and the hourlies are showing that there is a clear bearish trend. Therefore today this pair should again breach the 1.0900 level. However the EMA has been swinging recently between the 50 and 100 levels, indicating the possibility of range trading today.

Wild Card

Crude Oil

Oil has eased off slightly after reaching unbelievable all time highs but it still showing very positive momentum. Both daily and hourly charts are demonstrating robust bullish oscillators. This is a good opportunity for Forex traders to catch the resumption of the bullish rampage that oil has been on in recent weeks.

Market Trend

	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	AUD/USD	EUR/GBP
Daily Trend
Weekly Trend
Resistance	1.5000	2.0782	108.68	1.1055	0.8790	0.7295
	1.4975	2.0755	108.40	1.1020	0.8760	0.7268
	1.4945	2.0730	108.00	1.0980	0.8735	0.7236
Support	1.4900	2.0670	107.40	1.0910	0.8680	0.7170
	1.4878	2.0645	107.10	1.0874	0.8660	0.7143
	1.4857	2.0620	106.80	1.0846	0.8633	0.7115

Indicators

Date	Time GMT	$€£¥	Event	Period	Prev.	Forecast	Imp
2007-11-23		JPY	Holiday: Labor Thanksgiving Day		-	-
		Holiday: Labor Thanksgiving Day Japanese banks will be closed in observance of Labor Thanksgiving Day. Low liquidity is expected for the Tokyo Forex session.
2007-11-23	08:30	EUR	ECB President Trichet Speaks		-	-
		ECB President Trichet Speaks NULL
2007-11-23	09:30	USD	GDP	q/q	0.8%	0.8%
		GDP Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. GDP is the broadest measure of activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. To foreign investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably because it spurs investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets. More importantly, the central bank is more likely to raise interest rates in the face of a strong and growing economy. The combination of these effects can have a large impact on the demand for the nation's currency.