Forex Tips & Daily Analysis

Economical News

USD

Yesterday, the USD dropped to record lows against the EUR due to speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this week as the U.S. housing slump reverberates throughout the economy. Interest-rate futures show around a 90% chance that the Fed will lower its 4.75% overnight lending rate between banks by at least a 0.25% point on Wednesday. In addition, the greenback will find little support given the sharp rally in Crude Oil that has already reached the 92.60 level. Upcoming U.S economic data does not look to help the greenback either. The currency faces major risk this coming week with the release of the Consumer Confidence report, the GDP, the Manufacturing Index and the Non-Farm Payrolls. The aforementioned are expected to show relatively weak figures in comparison to previous months, thus dragging the USD further down. Facing a run of weak U.S. economic data, the USD may drop as low as $1.4500 against the EUR this week.

There could be some movement when former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan speaks today at a hedge-fund summit in Bermuda. Short of that, there is no real market moving news to be released from the U.S markets. Volatility is soaring, and while the greenback is likely to remain weak and oil strong in coming days, all of this wild price action creates the potential for steep corrections throughout the market.

EUR

The EUR hit another record high of 1.4420 against the greenback yesterday, and it may simply be a matter of time before the currency jumps above the 1.4500 barrier, ahead of the possible U.S interest rate cuts on Wednesday. Analysts estimate that this could add to the European Central Bank's dilemma over the next move for Euro zone interest rates as well. The European currency's gains came despite the weaker-than-expected German Consumer Confidence survey, which dropped to a seven month low of 4.9 last week. The decline in Consumer Confidence is not very surprising, as energy and food prices have soared and left Europeans with less retained income for arbitrary spending. The ECB is unlikely to raise interest rates before year end - barring a major increase in inflation figures - which provides far less fundamental support for the Euro at current levels.

The Euro Zone economic event risk will pick up this week with German CPI and German Employment Change data due on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Traders should watch for any particularly surprising results in either measure. Later, markets will be left to trade off of relatively non-market moving Euro Zone Consumer Confidence and CPI figures, while Friday PMI manufacturing data is unlikely to force volatile moves in the EUR.

JPY

The market has recently shown trends of a rise in trading in high-yielding commodity currencies. This, coupled with gains in Asian equity markets, helped boost risk appetite and encourage investors to put on carry trade bets funded by cheap borrowing in the Japanese yen.

The JPY was little changed against the USD and traded at 114.17 level yesterday. Today, we will see the release of Overall Housing Spending. This should have an effect on trading with the JPY as consumer spending in Japan accounts for roughly half of the overall GDP.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

The pair has breached a fresh all time high and is now floating at 1.4420. Both the 4 Hour and daily charts are showing a bearish cross on the slow stochastic, which indicates that there might be a correction back to the 1.4360 level before the next peak will be tested.

GBP/USD

The cable is going through a very strong up trend, and we can see new momentum on the hourly charts growing stronger. The daily chart indicates that the next target price might be around 2.0620.

USD/JPY

The pair is in the middle of a flat channel on the daily chart. The two consecutive doji bars indicate that a move is quite imminent, as the RSI is well below the 20 level. It appears that if the 114.00 level will not be breached, than a bullish move will be initiated that might take the pair above 115.00 again.

USD/CHF

The pair is floating around a major support level of 1.1600. At the moment the pair is failing the break, and is trading at a 30 pip range. If a breach through the 1.1600 level will occur, than we will probably see a very strong downtrend continue to the 1.1500/1.1550 levels.

Wild Card

Crude Oil

After peaking at an all time of 93.15, Crude Oil seems to be calming down a bit, and is now at a correction move. There is a bearish cross forming on the daily chart indicating that it might be a great opportunity for forex traders to go short on a very strong potential correction move. Next target price appears to be around 92.00.

Market Trend

	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	AUD/USD	EUR/GBP
Daily Trend
Weekly Trend
Resistance	1.4530	2.0620	115.16	1.1730	0.9330	0.7100
	1.4500	2.0600	114.88	1.1700	0.9300	0.7085
	1.4450	2.0582	114.60	1.1650	0.9255	0.7050
Support	1.4380	2.0520	114.00	1.1600	0.9200	0.7000
	1.4350	2.0500	113.73	1.1570	0.9175	0.6970
	1.4310	2.0483	113.46	1.1540	0.9150	0.6945

Indicators

Date	Time GMT	$€£¥	Event	Period	Prev.	Forecast	Imp
2007-10-29	09:30	GBP	Mortgage Approvals		109k	103k
2007-10-29	11:30	JPY	Overall Household Spending	y/y	1.6%	1.2%
		Overall Household Spending Measures the total amount spent by households on goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because consumer spending is a major driver of the economy, accounting for about half of GDP.
2007-10-29	17:15	USD	Alan Greenspan Speaks
		Alan Greenspan Speaks Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's interview with a Dutch newspaper will be published.