Data on tap - US GDP and GDP Deflator.
Economical News
USD
It has been a slow news day for the USD yesterday as the only significant piece of information was the Jobless Claims. Usually the figure is bluntly ignored but this week it might provide a delicate hint for the upcoming results of the Nonfarm Payrolls release due on next Friday. The Jobless Claims came in at 321K, which indicates that the NFP release will probably come around the 100K-120K and not close to last month's 180K levels.
The most important figure that is expected to be released today is the much anticipated US Gross Domestic Product at 13:30 GMT. The GDP is expected to come in at 1.9% which indicates that traders are predicting a slowdown in US growth after last month's 2.5% figure release. There seems to be a certain amount of unexplained optimism in the air regarding the Greenback's behavior recently. We can see that negative news is flowing in yet the USD is growing slightly stronger in the local scale. We could see that the EUR/USD was a bit shy of breaking the all time high and even the GBP/USD came back to the 1.9900 levels. That means that traders are feeling that there is no more room for the ongoing USD weakening rally, and are clearly signaling that it is time for a change. If the news that is expected next week headed by the NFP release will not be very weak or come inline with expectations, we might see the very much expected reversal in the USD behavior.
EUR
The European market is constantly showing that it is robust, stable, and steadily growing. It had continued to do so yesterday when the German Consumer Confidence came out higher then expected at 5.5, and the UK Nationwide House Prices jumped to 0.9% from 0.6%. Despite the High performance we did not see a new record high for the EUR/USD, and the GBP grew weaker against the USD.
The Euro-Zone Current Account is expected to be released today at 9:00 GMT with a very low forecast of 1.0B after a figure of 2.7B last month. Following this will be the release of the Euro-Zone Retail PMI, and the German Retail PMI also at 9:00 GMT, as both are expected to show better figures than last month. It remains to be seen whether we will see a new all time high for the EUR, and it will probably be determined more by US data, than Euro-Zone data.
JPY
It has been a night full of news for the JPY, as several important figures were released from the Japanese economy. The first was the Tokyo CPI which came higher than expected at 0.3%. The Manufacturing PMI was released almost inline with expectations at 52.3. A bit later the picture was a bit darker for the JPY as industrial production fell sharply from 0.7% to -0.6%. Following was the Retail Sales which also dropped to -0.7% with an expectation 0.3%. The mixture of positive and negative figures caused the JPY to react in an untypical calm behavior and no massive price shifts occured.
Today we will see the release of the BOJ Rate Decision, and anything except leaving the rate unchanged will be a complete surprise. It will be interesting to see the BOJ Outlook Report and get a clearer picture as to what we should look forward to regarding the growth of the Japanese economy.
No further major news is expected to come from the Japanese market for a while now, and it looks like the movement of the JPY will be submitted to USD behavior on top of the carry trades supported by the ongoing weakening trend.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
A slight bearish direction has been spotted in the 4 hour chart and volatility has risen upwards as traders see the Bollinger bands expanding. Next support level is at 1.3575 and a break below will drive this pair downwards, however overall trend direction is still supporting USD depreciation.
GBP/USD
This pair has reached 1.9860 support level and trying now to break below and continue the bearish trend. 4 hour slow stochastic is low at 15, momentum is low at 99.3 and RSI is at 20 facing downwards next support set to 1.9800.
USD/JPY
Major resistance has been spotted at 119.80 and a break above 120 will hike the JPY higher. However 4 hour slow stochastic is crossing and curving downwards at 90, also 4 hour RSI is high at 90 and momentum is at 100.90. Making the current trend slightly bullish with an imminent trend reversal at next resistance.
USD/CHF
Heavy resistance has been spotted at 1.2100 and 4 hour slow stochastic is crossing above 80 facing downwards 4 hour RSI is at 80 and momentum is at 100.51 hinting a possible bearish reversal.
Wild Card
GBP/NZD
Forex traders be aware strong support has been spotted at 2.6915 and all indicators are bullish Slow stochastic is at 40 facing upwards RSI is at 40 and momentum is at 98.75 all with a clear direction upwards. Next resistance is set to 2.7420 with strong bullish trend reversal.
Market Trend
| EUR/USD | GBP/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CHF | AUD/USD | EUR/GBP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily Trend |  |
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| Weekly Trend | |
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| Resistance | 1.3700 | 2.0139 | 120.20 | 1.2148 | 0.8405 | 0.6893 |
| 1.3666 | 2.0093 | 119.95 | 1.2100 | 0.8356 | 0.6867 | |
| 1.3620 | 2.0020 | 119.65 | 1.2100 | 0.8305 | 0.6845 | |
| Support | 1.3575 | 1.9875 | 118.65 | 1.2055 | 0.8202 | 0.6807 |
| 1.3523 | 1.9805 | 118.22 | 1.2012 | 0.8175 | 0.6785 | |
| 1.3476 | 1.9725 | 117.65 | 1.1985 | 0.8135 | 0.6752 |
Indicators
| Date | Time GMT | $€£¥ | Event | Period | Prev. | Forecast | Imp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/27/07 | 07:00 | JPY | BOJ Outlook Report |  | |||
| 04/27/07 | 09:00 | EUR | Current Account | 2.7B | 1.0B |  | |
| 04/27/07 | 09:00 | EUR | Retail PMI | 53.4 | | ||
| 04/27/07 | 13:30 | USD | GDP Annualized | q/q (p) | 2.5% | 1.9% |  |
| 04/27/07 | 13:30 | USD | GDP Deflator Annualized | q/q (p) | 1.7% | 3.0% | |
| 04/27/07 | 13:30 | USD | ECI | q/q | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 04/27/07 | 15:00 | USD | Consumer Sentiment | (r) | 85.3 | 85.3 | |