Forex Tips & Daily Analysis

Bearish Dollar Will Try and Recover Losses Today.

Following yesterday's bearish downturn for the U.S. Dollar, the greenback will try and recover some of its losses with the help of several critical economic indicators today. Both the U.S. Trade Balance Report and this week's unemployment claims are likely to have an impact on Dollar positions. Whether or not they can provide USD with the necessary momentum to reverse its current direction is yet to be known.

Economical News

USD

After taking some serious losses against several of its major counterparts in trading yesterday, the Dollar remains in its bearish cycle as investor risk appetite has returned. EUR/USD shot up over 50 pips yesterday before slightly retreating to its current level of 1.3635. GBP/USD made similar gains, increasing over 60 pips throughout the afternoon. The pair is currently trading at 1.4955. In overnight trading, the Yen continued to make gains on the greenback with the pair currently trading around the 90.28 level.

Analysts do not appear to be optimistic about the Dollar's prospects in trading today. At 13:30 GMT, both the U.S. and Canadian trade balance figures are set to be released. While positive figures are forecasted for Canada, the U.S. will likely have a negative trade figure. If the predictions are true, traders can expect USD/CAD to go down in afternoon trading.

Also set to be released today are the weekly American unemployment figures. Analysts are cautiously optimistic regarding the current employment situation in the U.S., and they are currently forecasting a figure of around 456K. If true, this would signal a slight improvement over last week, and may lead to a slight Dollar rebound. Still, various Chinese indicators continue to stir risk appetite among investors. Forex traders will want to pay careful attention to their Dollar pairs as the day progresses.

EUR

With risk taking apparently on the rise, the Euro is currently capitalizing on the global economic climate and maintaining its gains against its major rivals. The Euro was bullish throughout the day yesterday, and faired particularly well against the Yen. EUR/JPY, up over 100 pips from this time yesterday, is currently trading around the 123.19 level. Comments yesterday from European officials regarding Greece gave the impression that the current debt crisis may finally be coming to an end.

Today, there are no significant Euro news events. Still, that does not mean that Euro pairs will not see some activity in trading today. The British Consumer Inflation Expectation Report as well as the Swiss short-term interest rate report will likely lead to volatility for both the EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF pairs. Traders will want to pay particular attention to the Swiss report, as CHF has been performing fairly well against the Euro as of late.

JPY

Following yesterday's announcement that the Japanese central bank may ease monetary policy in the coming weeks, the Yen traded bearish against several of its counterparts throughout the day. USD/JPY moved up in afternoon trading before retreating slightly to its current level of 90.32. CHF/JPY shot up over 100 pips throughout the day yesterday before correcting itself. At this time, the pair is trading around the 84.35 level.

Today, the Yen will likely maintain its current course, especially as risk taking seems to be the predominant sentiment among investors. Still, if the negative forecasts regarding the U.S. Trade Balance Report prove true, JPY could make some gains in afternoon trading against the greenback.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

The daily chart is showing mixed signals with its Slow Stochastic fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, the weekly Chart's RSI is already floating in the oversold territory indicating that a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the upward breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

GBP/USD

The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the weekly chart's RSI indicating an upward correction may be imminent. The upward direction on the daily chart's Momentum oscillator also supports this notion. Going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

USD/JPY

The typical range trading on the 4-hour chart continues. The weekly chart RSI is floating in neutral territory. However, there is a bearish cross forming on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic indicating a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. Going short might be a wise choice.

USD/CHF

The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The Daily chart's Slow Stochastic providing us with mixed signals. The 4 hour charts do not provide a clear direction as well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies chart might be a good strategy today.

Wild Card

Gold

Gold prices are once again dropping, and it is currently traded around $1107.45 an ounce. And now, the 8-hour chart's RSI is giving bullish signals, indicating that gold prices might go up. This might give forex traders a great opportunity to enter a very popular trend.

Market Trend

	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	AUD/USD	EUR/GBP
Daily Trend
Weekly Trend
Resistance	1.3725	1.5055	91.20	1.0785	0.9230	0.9190
	1.3705	1.5035	91.00	1.0765	0.9210	0.9170
	1.3675	1.5005	90.70	1.0735	0.9180	0.9140
Support	1.3615	1.4945	90.10	1.0675	0.9120	0.9080
	1.3585	1.4915	89.80	1.0645	0.9090	0.9050
	1.3565	1.4895	89.60	1.0625	0.9070	0.9030

Indicators

Date	Time GMT	$€£¥	Event	Period	Prev.	Forecast	Imp
2010-03-11	00:00	AUD	MI Inflation Expectations		3.2%	*
		MI Inflation Expectations Measures the percentage change which consumers expect for the price of goods and services over the next year.
2010-03-11	00:30	AUD	Employment Change		56.5K	15.2K
		Employment Change This report measures the number of jobs created during the previous month. It is one of the most important indicators of the economy's health since individual consumption makes up a significant portion of a country's GDP and has a direct correlation with employment.
2010-03-11	00:30	AUD	Unemployment Rate		5.2%	5.3%
		Unemployment Rate This figure represents the percentage of potential workers that are currently unemployed and actively seeking a job. This report is typically overlooked as its information is derived from previously released indicators.
2010-03-11	00:30	AUD	RBA Bulletin		*	*
		RBA Bulletin The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Bulletin is a monthly publication that contains commentary on the economic conditions in Australia.
2010-03-11	07:45	EUR	French Final Non-Farm Payrolls	q/q	-0.4%	-0.4%
		French Final Non-Farm Payrolls Measure the change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and government
2010-03-11	07:45	EUR	French Gov Budget Balance		-138.0B	-
		French Gov Budget Balance This indicator measures the difference in value between the central government's income and spending for the year-to-date.
2010-03-11	09:00	EUR	ECB Monthly Bulletin		*	*
		ECB Monthly Bulletin This report reveals the data which was used by the ECB Governing Board when making the latest interest rate decision. It is released 1 week after the Minimum Bid Rate is announced.
2010-03-11	09:30	GBP	Consumer Inflation Expectations		2.4%	-
		Consumer Inflation Expectations This report measures the percentage change in inflation expected to be paid by private consumers over the next 12 months.
2010-03-11	13:00	CHF	Libor Rate		0.25%	0.25%
		Libor Rate This rate is a measure of London's interest rate for 3-month Swiss Franc deposits. Short-term interest rates are the leading factor in currency valuation. As such, this rate will be a primary determinant for the value of the Swiss Franc.
2010-03-11	13:00	CHF	SNB Monetary Policy Assessment		*	*
		SNB Monetary Policy Assessment The Swiss National Bank (SNB) describes the current monetary situation, presents the latest inflation forecast and most importantly announces its monetary policy intentions for the coming quarter.
2010-03-11	13:30	CAD	Trade Balance		-0.2B	0.3B
		Trade Balance This report measures the difference between imported and exported goods and services. A positive number indicates the country is exporting more goods than it is importing. A country with a growing positive trade balance may see their currency strengthen as a result.
2010-03-11	13:30	CAD	NHPI	m/m	0.4%	0.5%
		NHPI This is a report which measure the change in the selling price of new homes. It's a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity;
2010-03-11	13:30	GBP	Capacity Utilization Rate		67.5%	70.0%
		Capacity Utilization Rate A measure of consumer inflation. When producers of goods approach full capacity they often hike prices in order to regain control of their market expectations and increase profits.
2010-03-11	13:30	USD	Trade Balance		-40.2B	-40.9B
		Trade Balance This report measures the difference between imported and exported goods and services. A positive number indicates the country is exporting more goods than it is importing. A country with a growing positive trade balance may see their currency strengthen as a result.
2010-03-11	13:30	USD	Unemployment Claims		469K	456K
		Unemployment Claims An indicator which measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance with the government for the first time during the past week. This is one of the earlier releases of economic data.
2010-03-11	15:30	USD	Natural Gas Storage		-116B	-107B
		Natural Gas Storage This figure measures the change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in storage by this country from week to week. It has a moderate impact on the price of fuels, but provides mixed results for investors.
2010-03-11	19:00	USD	FOMC Member Dudley Speaks		*	*
		FOMC Member Dudley Speaks Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member William Dudley is due to speak today. Traders usually watch these speeches closely as they are then able to speculate about future monetary policy decisions.
2010-03-11	19:05	CAD	BOC Gov Carney Speaks		*	*
		BOC Gov Carney Speaks Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Carney is due to speak. These speeches often carry clues about future monetary policy decisions and can affect the market during their delivery.
2010-03-11	21:45	NZD	Retail Sales	m/m	0.0%	0.4%
		Retail Sales This report is a measure of the change in the total value of retail sales. Positive figures indicate economic growth.
2010-03-11	21:45	NZD	NZD Core Retail Sales	m/m	-1.8%	0.7%
		NZD Core Retail Sales Measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.