Forex Tips & Daily Analysis

Greece Debt Concerns Ease, EUR Currently Bullish.

Some of the latest price movements in the EUR have reflected a growing sense of optimism in the Euro-Zone, given the mild easing of debt concerns in Greece. Switzerland also appears to be having a positive effect on the region with a recent report which showed retail sales climbing much higher than forecast last month. Investor confidence in the region also appears to have risen slightly better than was anticipated. Whether Europe can sustain this bullish momentum is yet to be seen, but so far the regional currencies appear to be holding their gains.

Economical News

USD

Following last Friday's less-than-inspiring Non-Farm Payrolls data, the US Dollar has entered what appears to be a diverse array of price movements. Against the EUR and CHF, the greenback has entered a range-trading pattern with distinct highs and lows. The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.3615, down from yesterday's 1.3680. Against the Yen, the Dollar has started coming back down from last week's jump. After reaching upwards of 90.60, the pair now trades just above the 90.00 price level.

The USD has taken a downturn lately, following Friday's modest rise. The easing of debt concerns in Greece has a number of forex market participants buying back into the Euro. Whether Europe can sustain this bullish momentum is yet to be seen, but so far the regional currencies appear to be holding their gains.

Since today's economic calendar will be void of any news from the United States, the chances of any major market corrections today are slim. However, if we were to correlate the potential movement of Crude Oil with the price of the EUR/USD, there is a chance that we could see some Dollar strengthening as the technical indicators are showing a potential downward move in Crude Oil later today.

EUR

The EUR appears to have leveled off against the majority of its currency rivals. Moderate downturns were experienced against the CAD and AUD, however, with price dips of 60 and 40 pips, respectively. Versus its primary counterpart, the US Dollar, the EUR was trading bearish overall on the day near the price level of 1.3615, down from 1.3700 seen earlier in the trading day. The EUR/USD pair, moreover, appears to be range trading between 1.3450 and 1.3730.

Some of the latest price movements in the EUR have reflected a growing sense of optimism in the Euro-Zone, given the mild easing of debt concerns in Greece. Switzerland also appears to be having a positive effect on the region with a recent report which showed retail sales climbing much higher than forecast last month. Investor confidence in the region also appears to have risen slightly better than was anticipated.

Overall, if the 16-nation Euro-Zone economy continues to provide data which supports the notion of improving economic sentiment, there is a strong chance the EUR will see increasingly strong signals of reversing last month's losses. However, since we are expecting a light news day, the chances of this happening today are slim. Additionally, this entire week appears to be light on European market news and as such could mean that the EUR will not be in the driver's seat of its price movements until next week.

JPY

After experiencing a sharp decline against all of its major counterparts on Friday, the JPY now appears to be regaining strength in today's early trading hours. So far the Yen has climbed 185 pips against the British Pound and is currently trading at the 135.15 price mark. Against the USD the JPY currently sits just above the 90.00 price level but appears to be facing a significant support line at that price.

With a number of machinery and industrial figures being published by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) today, there is a chance that the JPY will witness a higher-than-usual level of volatility in trading later in the afternoon. Significant price barriers are being touched on almost every JPY pair. If a breach occurs, the JPY could jump to completely pare the losses made last Friday. But if the JPY cannot gain the necessary momentum, there could be a downturn on the way.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

While most indicators for the pair are floating in neutral territory, a modest upward correction may take place today as the 2 hour chart RSI is floating near the oversold territory and a bullish cross is evident on the 4 hour chart's Slow Stochastic. Going long with tight stops may be advised for today.

GBP/USD

The pair may be seeing a bullish correction today as the hourly, 2 hour and daily RSI are floating in the oversold territory indicating an upcoming upward movement. Furthermore a bullish cross is evident on the 4 hour and 2 hour charts' Slow Stochastic. Going long for the day may be a good option.

USD/JPY

The pair seems to be exhibiting mixed signals at the moment with the 4 hour and 8 hour charts' RSI floating in the overbought territory, while the hourly and 2 hour RSI floating in the oversold territory. Furthermore, a bullish cross is evident on the 2 hour chart's Slow Stochastic, while a bearish cross is evident on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic. Waiting on a clearer direction for the pair may be advised for today.

USD/CHF

The pair seems to be range trading at the moment, with most indicators floating in neutral territory. A slight bearish correction might take place, however, as a bearish cross is evident on the 4 hour chart's Slow stochastic and the 2 hour RSI is floating near the overbought territory, indicating and impending downward movement. Going short with tight stops may be advised for today.

Wild Card

GBP/AUD

The pair's recent downward trend may be seeing some correction today as the hourly, 2 hour, 4 hour and daily RSI are floating in the oversold territory and a bullish cross is evident on the hourly and 2 hour charts' Slow Stochastic. A breach of the lower Bollinger Band is also evident on the 4 hour chart. Forex traders are advised to go long for today.

Market Trend

	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	AUD/USD	EUR/GBP
Daily Trend
Weekly Trend
Resistance	1.3715	1.5120	90.95	1.0845	0.9190	0.9165
	1.3680	1.5085	90.60	1.0810	0.9155	0.9130
	1.3650	1.5045	90.30	1.0780	0.9125	0.9100
Support	1.3580	1.4980	89.65	1.0710	0.9060	0.9035
	1.3550	1.4950	89.30	1.0680	0.9030	0.9000
	1.3515	1.4915	89.00	1.0650	0.9000	0.8960

Indicators

Date	Time GMT	$€£¥	Event	Period	Prev.	Forecast	Imp
2010-03-09	00:01	GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor	y/y	-0.7%	-
		BRC Retail Sales Monitor The British Retail Consortium's (BRC) Retail Sales Monitor measures the change in value a sample of similar retail stores, essentially excluding those stores which have been open for a year or less.
2010-03-09	00:01	GBP	RICS House Price Balance		32%	36%
		RICS House Price Balance This is a report which measures the price change of homes in the UK. This leading indicator represents the percentage of chartered surveyors reporting a price rise in their designated area. For instance, a reading above 0% indicates expansion. The report is published by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS)
2010-03-09	00:30	AUD	ANZ Job Advertisements	m/m	-8.1%	-
		ANZ Job Advertisements This report is measuring the change in the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and websites covering the capital cities in Australia and New Zealand.
2010-03-09	00:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence		15	-
		NAB Business Confidence The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence indicator is measuring the mood of domestic firms in non-farm sectors. it is derived from a survey of about 350 Australian companies.
2010-03-09	05:00	JPY	Leading Indicators		94.3%	96.9%
		Leading Indicators This report is combining ten leading indocators in order to measure overall economic health. The leading indicators includes average weekly hours, new orders, consumer expectations, housing permits, stock prices, and interest rate spreads.
2010-03-09	06:00	JPY	Prelim Machine Tool Orders	y/y	189.4%	-
		Prelim Machine Tool Orders This is a report which Measures the change in the total value of new orders placed with machine tool manufacturers. There are 2 versions of this report, the Preliminary and Final. The Preliminary release is the earliest and therefore tends to have the most impact.
2010-03-09	07:45	EUR	French Trade Balance		-4.3B	-3.7B
		French Trade Balance This report measures the difference between imported and exported goods and services from France. A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported;
2010-03-09	08:15	CHF	CPI	m/m	-0.1%	0.2%
		CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is a gauge for inflation.
2010-03-09	09:30	GBP	Trade Balance		-7.3B	-6.9B
		Trade Balance This report measures the difference between imported and exported goods and services. A positive number indicates the country is exporting more goods than it is importing. A country with a growing positive trade balance may see their currency strengthen as a result.
2010-03-09	15:00	USD	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism		46.8	48.9
		IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism The Investor's Business Daily (IBD) TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) Economic Optimism Index measures the mood of consumers in regard to economic conditions. 900 nationwide adults evaluate their "six-month economic outlook," "personal financial outlook," and their "confidence in federal economic policies." Index readings above 50 indicate optimism, and below 50 indicates pessimism. When consumers are optimistic they tend to purchase more goods and services, which stimulates the economy, and therefore - good for the USD.
2010-03-09	21:45	AUD	Overseas Trade Index	q/q	-1.3%	0.1%
		Overseas Trade Index This is a report which measures the change in price of internationally traded goods and services.
2010-03-09	23:30	CHF	Westpac Consumer Sentiment		-2.6%	-
		Westpac Consumer Sentiment An index based on a survey of consumers. The index indicates optimism when above 100, below this mark indicates consumer pessimism.
2010-03-09	23:50	JPY	Core Machinery Orders	m/m	20.1%	-3.3%
		Core Machinery Orders This report measures the total value of new orders placed with machine manufacturers, excluding orders for items with a volatile sales cycle. A rising trend has a positive effect on the local currency.
2010-03-09	23:50	JPY	CGPI	y/y	-2.1%	-1.4%
		CGPI The Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) is a measure of the rate of inflation experienced by corporations when purchasing goods.